If you look only at the current rates of return in the bond markets, you might think that the industrial nations are in a recession. A mere 2.9 percent yield for 10-year US Treasury bonds is as incongruous to the expected US economic growth of 3.5 percent in 2010 as the 2.5 percent returns of 10-year federal bonds are to the booming labor market in Germany. Have the markets gone crazy? No, these weak interest rates on one hand indicate that investors are taking flight to safe harbors, and on the other hand act as a precursor to a significant weakening of economic growth.
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